This week's StoxEurope deep-dive takes Barco NV (BAR, Euronext Brussels) — a Belgian technology company that develops visualisation products and solutions for three markets: Entertainment, Enterprise and Healthcare — through the StoxEurope Valuation Standard.
In the first half of 2026 Barco's EBITDA margin was 6,2 %, against 10,6 % a year earlier. On 20 October it expected an EBITDA margin around 11 % for 2026, like-for-like; in July it had expected 11–12 %.
So our deep-dive asks one question: how much of Barco's margin comes back?
The StoxEurope estimate
The StoxEurope estimate is €9,37 per share on 23 October 2026. It comes from the primary model — the discounted cash flow of the whole business, chosen for this company before any value was computed.
Across the three modelled scenarios the primary model gives €7,52 to €13,57: markets stay weak; the outlook, then the record; or the 2028 targets. Those are three modelled scenarios, not a statistical confidence interval.
The share price on 23 October 2026 was €6,47. The article also reads the same forecast under two other conventions, free cash flow to equity and the payout model; they are never averaged in.
Three assumptions behind it
VerVent sits outside our forecast at Barco's net outlay of €134,2 m; written off entirely, the estimate would be €7,72. The operating margin returns in equal steps to its 2025 level by 2030. The discount rate is 8,50 % (operating beta 1,19); on Barco's measured beta it would give €8,08.
What €6,47 would take
Our base model reaches €6,47 without extra years. Under these one-input tests, our model also reaches €6,47 with an operating margin of 4,40 % in year 5, below any of the last three years on our earnings basis (lowest: 6,8 %); sales growth of −20,24 % a year in year 5, below the record (lowest: −9,9 %); or a discount rate of 14,18 % (operating beta 2,48), against our 8,50 %. None of the tests with an answer lies inside the company's printed record. Each test changes the condition it names; other independent inputs, including long-run growth, stay at base. The market may be pricing a combination of changes; we have not tested such combinations. This is not a statement of what investors believe.
The uncertainty that matters most
Barco's first-half EBITDA margin was 6,2 % including VerVent; its full-year outlook of around 11 % is like-for-like, without VerVent, and therefore depends on a much stronger second half. If the second half falls short, the recovery our base assumes from 2027 is the first thing in question.
The full workings
Read the full valuation — every assumption, every model, the full workings: https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/barco/
Disclosures
No position is held in Barco NV, in shares or any other instrument. Ledger-verified as at 25 October 2026.
This valuation is general, impersonal research—not personalised investment advice or an offer to trade. It reflects stated assumptions and information available at publication; estimates are uncertain, may change and are not guarantees. To the fullest extent permitted by law, StoxEurope accepts no liability for reliance on this publication; readers should conduct their own research and review the disclosed methodology, risks and conflicts.
/