This week's StoxEurope deep-dive takes Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB, Euronext Brussels) — the Belgian maker of branded biscuits, snacks and spreads, Lotus Biscoff first among them — through the StoxEurope Valuation Standard.
Lotus has started the largest capacity programme in its history — at least €500 m for Biscoff over 2026–2030 — while revenue grew 14 % in the first half of 2026. Most of the value lies beyond year five. No peer value is shown: none of the three companies we examined runs a business close enough to Lotus Bakeries’ for its multiple to apply.
The StoxEurope estimate
The StoxEurope estimate is €5.555,04 per share, as at 6 October 2026. It comes from the primary model — the discounted cash flow of the whole business, chosen for this company before any value was computed.
Across the three modelled scenarios the primary model gives €4.026,66 to €6.853,00. Those are three modelled scenarios, not a statistical confidence interval: growth slows, Biscoff keeps growing, or capacity fills fast.
The share price on 6 October 2026 was €12.300,00.
What €12.300,00 would take
Under these one-input tests, our base model reaches €12.300,00 only with an operating margin of 34,92 %, above any year printed in the last three (best: 16,8 %); no sales growth or discount rate in the tested ranges reaches it. Each test changes one named input; other independent inputs, including long-run growth, stay at base. 89 % of the value comes from after year five. The market may be pricing a combination of changes; we have not tested such combinations. This is not a statement of what investors believe.
The uncertainty that matters most
This estimate assumes that investment after year five earns only its cost of capital; if capacity already paid for by 2030 produces additional profit after 2030, the base understates the value — Lotus does not say how full the halls will be at the end of 2030, so no figure is claimed.
The full workings
Read the full valuation — every assumption, every model, the full workings: https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/lotus-bakeries/
Disclosures
Position disclosure: No position is held in Lotus Bakeries NV, in shares or any other instrument. Ledger-verified as at 7 October 2026.
This valuation is general, impersonal research—not personalised investment advice or an offer to trade. It reflects stated assumptions and information available at publication; estimates are uncertain, may change and are not guarantees. To the fullest extent permitted by law, StoxEurope accepts no liability for reliance on this publication; readers should conduct their own research and review the disclosed methodology, risks and conflicts.