This week's StoxEurope deep-dive takes Melexis NV (MELE, Euronext Brussels) — the Ieper designer of sensor and driver chips, most of them for cars — through the StoxEurope Valuation Standard.
Melexis is a hard test of the method: sales fell in 2024 and 2025, and the operating margin went from 27,1 % in 2023 to 16,0 % in 2025, while the €3,70 dividend continued. None of the four companies we examined runs a business close enough to Melexis's for its multiple to apply, so there is no peer value to lean on.
https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/melexis/
(second edition, 5 October 2026; no figure changed)
The StoxEurope estimate
The StoxEurope estimate is €31,49 per share, as at 25 September 2026. It comes from the primary model — the discounted cash flow of the whole business, chosen for this company before any value was computed.
Across the three modelled scenarios the primary model gives €22,82 to €40,85. Those are three modelled scenarios, not a statistical confidence interval: the downturn lingers, the guided recovery holds, or the business moves back towards its 2023 peak.
The share price on 25 September 2026 was €66,80.
What €66,80 would take
Under these one-input tests, our base model reaches €66,80 only with an operating margin of 33,96 %, above any year printed in the last three (best: 27,1 %), or sales growth of 21,97 % a year, far above the record, or a discount rate of 5,03 % (beta 0,35), against our 9,37 %.
Each test changes one named input; other independent inputs, including long-run growth, stay at base. About two thirds of the value comes from after year five. The market may be pricing a combination of changes; we have not tested such combinations. This is not a statement of what investors believe.
The uncertainty that matters most
With the declared €1,30 interim included, the first forecast year closes
€12,7–35,0 m short. How that gap would be covered is not yet known: the
company has not said.
The full workings
Read the full valuation — every assumption, every model, the full
workings: https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/melexis/
Disclosures
Position disclosure: No position is held in Melexis NV, in shares or any other instrument. Ledger-verified as at 25 September 2026.
This valuation is general, impersonal research—not personalised investment advice or an offer to trade. It reflects stated assumptions and information available at publication; estimates are uncertain, may change and are not guarantees. To the fullest extent permitted by law, StoxEurope accepts no liability for reliance on this publication;
readers should conduct their own research and review the disclosed methodology, risks and conflicts.