Deep-dive 008: Colruyt Group — one model, and six that argue with it.

This week's StoxEurope deep-dive takes Colruyt Group NV (COLR, Euronext Brussels) — the family-controlled Belgian lowest-price grocer — through the StoxEurope Valuation Standard.

Colruyt is a clean test of the method: ten years of printed dividends, steady cash generation, more cash than bank debt, and lease liabilities of the same order as a year's operating profit. The financial year closed on 31 March 2026 and the annual report was published on 31 July. This analysis is struck before the General Meeting of 30 September, on the report as filed.

The StoxEurope estimate is €46,08 per share. It comes from the primary model — the discounted cash flow of the whole business, chosen for this company before any value was computed.

Across the three modelled scenarios the primary model gives €33,71 to €53,25. Those are three modelled scenarios of the primary model, not a statistical confidence interval. In the downside world price competition keeps taking market share; in the base world the company delivers the operating result it printed in June; in the upside world bolt-on acquisitions and the non-food formats keep the reported pace.

The reference price was €38,42 on 18 September 2026.

Six other models were run on the same forecast and left in as challenges. They are not averaged in: free cash flow to equity €38,95, augmented payout €37,94, dividends alone €37,20, EV/EBITDA €46,01, earnings €49,90, book value €54,14 — with residual income at €37,94 as a consistency check. Each stands against the estimate, and every material difference is explained in the article rather than smoothed away.

Discount rate (WACC) — 6,71 %: every projected cash flow is discounted at this rate — a blend of a 7,36 % cost of equity and a lower after-tax cost of debt.

Bottom-up beta — 0,76: the equity-risk input the primary model uses, built from the business mix rather than taken from the share's own price history.

Assumed payout — 55 %: what the comparison models assume is paid out over five years: 49 % as dividend and 6 % as buy-backs.

In recent years Colruyt's distributions have exceeded the free cash flow left for shareholders, the difference coming from the cash pile built after the Parkwind sale. That cannot continue indefinitely. The primary model does not depend on the payout, but the comparison models do: they assume 55 % of earnings for five years — 49 % as dividend, 6 % as buy-backs — the highest level the funding schedule shows can be paid in every scenario.

Read the full valuation — every assumption, every model, the full workings: https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/colruyt/

Position disclosure: No position is held in Colruyt Group NV, in shares or any other instrument. Ledger-verified as at 18 September 2026.

This valuation is general, impersonal research—not personalised investment advice or an offer to trade. It reflects stated assumptions and information available at publication; estimates are uncertain, may change and are not guarantees. To the fullest extent permitted by law, StoxEurope accepts no liability for reliance on this publication; readers should conduct their own research and review the disclosed methodology, risks and conflicts.