This week's deep-dive is a first twice over. KBC Group (KBC · Euronext Brussels) is the first financial company through StoxEurope's model-selection rule — and the first published valuation where the models don't agree.
For a bank, free cash flow isn't a meaningful concept, so the five-step rule switches the DCF off. The valuation rests on the residual income model, the dividend discount model, and a peer cross-check restricted to P/E and P/B — enterprise-value multiples have no meaning against a deposit-funded balance sheet.
What the models read
Model | Point estimate | Envelope |
|---|---|---|
DDM | €126,41 | €90,27–€220,03 |
RIM | €83,18 | €76,83–€89,98 |
The honest result
Market Cross-Check (Relative, P/E + P/B vs ING and ABN AMRO): €116,94 — reported beside the models, never folded in.
The DDM's envelope floor is €90,27; the RIM's ceiling is €89,98. Across the entirety of both sensitivity grids the two never overlap — the closest approach is €0,29. The €120,10 price (20 July 2026) sits inside the DDM envelope alone.
There is no Confluence Zone, and we publish that miss rather than engineering it away.
Why they disagree
The disagreement is the information. The DDM capitalises a growing dividend into perpetuity at a 6,50 % cost of equity — a rate resting on KBC's unusually low measured beta of 0,67, the single assumption doing the most work in the article. The RIM credits excess returns for exactly five years and stops. Point two lenses at the same bank and they answer different questions; here the answers do not meet, and no consolidated figure is offered.
The full article shows every judgement: the 10-year dividend record and how we read the COVID-era ECB measures, the AT1 accounting that makes bank book values comparable, and every lever you can move yourself in the calculators.
Read the full deep-dive: https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/kbc/
Analysis dated 20 July 2026 · Published 21 July 2026
Position disclosure:
The author holds a position in KBC Group NV as at 20 July 2026. This valuation is a StoxEurope opinion, based on honest research. Mistakes are possible. This is not investment advice. Do your own research.
This article demonstrates a valuation methodology. It is not an investment recommendation, is not personalised to any reader's circumstances, and every figure in it depends entirely on the stated assumptions.