This week's StoxEurope deep-dive takes Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (AD, Euronext Amsterdam) — a defensive food retailer earning roughly 57 % of its sales in the United States — through the triangulation method. It is the first deep-dive to carry a sourced Market Cross-Check: Carrefour and Colruyt, every multiple built on the same lease-inclusive basis as the subject.
All three intrinsic models apply, and they do not converge.
What the models read
Model | Point estimate | Envelope |
|---|---|---|
DCF | €64,91 | €39,60–€140,57 |
DDM | €27,64 | €20,36–€44,56 |
RIM | €20,03 | €18,61–€21,54 |
Market Cross-Check (Carrefour, Colruyt, lease-inclusive): €24,17 · €23,43 — reported beside the zone, never folded in.
The point estimates run from €20,03 (RIM) through €27,64 (DDM) to €64,91 (DCF) — a spread of more than three to one.
The Confluence Zone is not a single band but two disjoint segments: DDM∩RIM at €20,36–€21,54 and DCF∩DDM at €39,60–€44,56. Between €21,54 and €39,60 no two models overlap — and the €35,83 price (as at 9 July 2026) sits in exactly that gap, covered by the DDM envelope alone.
Not High Conviction. High Conviction is a mechanical status of the model outputs under published criteria — it is not a buy signal, and its absence is not a sell signal.
Why they disagree
The disagreement is the information, not noise. The DCF reads highest because a defensive, investment-grade retailer carries a low discount rate, and a low rate capitalises a stable perpetuity into a large number. The DDM reads low because Ahold returns roughly as much cash through buybacks as through dividends, and a dividend lens never sees buybacks as returned cash. The RIM reads lowest on a book that is about 96 % goodwill.
The two Cross-Check readings — €24,17 and €23,43 — land beside the lower segment.
The one caveat: the DCF's €64,91 rests heavily on value beyond the explicit five years — 83 % of it.
The full workings
Read the full valuation — every assumption, every model, the full workings:
Ahold Delhaize on StoxEurope → https://stoxeurope.com/valuation/ahold-delhaize/
Disclosures
The author holds no position in Ahold Delhaize as at 9 July 2026.
This valuation is a StoxEurope opinion, based on honest research. Mistakes are possible. This is not investment advice. Do your own research.
This article demonstrates a valuation methodology. It is not an investment recommendation, is not personalised to any reader's circumstances, and every figure in it depends entirely on the stated assumptions.